Selected work in frontier AI policy, law, and quantitative research—each with its question, its method, and its evidence stated plainly.
Frontier AI Cyber Evaluation Exchange
Independent policy concept · September 2026
Collective learning without centralizing sensitive traces.
Read the work →Repo-Market Pressure Model
Probabilistic forecasting system · 2026, in progress
Forecasts tomorrow’s cost of overnight borrowing as a range, and passed a test written down in advance and run once — while stating plainly that it is not yet a crisis alarm.
Read the work →Technology Layoffs Event Study
Quantitative event study · August 2026
−0.5% mean three-day abnormal return
Read the work →Sovereignty, Regulatory Divergence and Deregulation
Independent policy brief · 2024, updated September 2026
Autonomy expands the choice set. It does not choose the outcome.
Read the work →Disaster Evacuation and the Rights of Incarcerated People
Public policy speech, 12 minutes · September 2026
Custody turns a public emergency into a condition of confinement.
Read the work →Event Horizon Lab
Educational physics simulation · 2026, in progress
The shadow, the lensed disk and the photon ring come out of the physics; none of them is drawn.
Read the work →